James Cameron is Doing it for the Love of the Game

"the worst business case in movie history."

Author

Will Stern
December 14, 2022

As much as we love to romanticize filmmaking, it's hard to ignore the elephant in the room: Money.

This seems to directly contradict the timeless ode to cinema provided by Nicole Kidman before the start of every movie in an AMC Theater, but, alas, we may come to the theater for 'Magic' and 'that indescribable feeling we get when the lights begin to dim', but the big whigs in Hollywood only care about those 'dazzling images' and the heartbreak that 'feels so good' when it serves their bottom line.

Shocker, I know. But apparently, the nearly $100B U.S. film industry isn't simply about the magic.

If it was, we probably wouldn't be subjected to seven Marvel movies a month for the rest of our waking lives.

So, unsurprisingly, there's a massive money filter between ourselves and the artists making our favorite (and least favorite) films.

Which makes the beautiful absurdity of Avatar: The Way of the Water even more delightful. 13 years after Cameron released the original Avatar in 2009, raking in a record-breaking $2.9B at the worldwide box office (a record which still stands, suck it, Avengers), the long-awaited sequel is finally here.

And as far as anyone can tell, it's far from a guaranteed money-maker. In fact, just ask Cameron himself, who reportedly told the studios the film would be "the worst business case in movie history." After Mr. Cameron removed his balls from the table, he continued to explain: "you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That’s your threshold. That’s your break even.”

According to GQ, Cameron made over 400 versions of some parts of the film over the years of production. In September 2022, two months before the schedule release, he still wasn't satisfied. GQ's Zach Baron asked Cameron just how expensive the film's production was to produce. His answer?

"Very fucking"

Another gem from the GQ article encapsulates Cameron's ability to justify the massive costs, tenuous revenue projections, and gaggle of naysayers:

Cameron is proud to work at the biggest scale possible—Terminator 2: Judgment Day, True Lies, and Titanic were all among the most expensive films ever made at the time of their release. “And I used to be really defensive about that because it was always the first thing anybody would mention,” Cameron said. “And now I’m like, if I can make a business case to spend a billion dollars on a movie, I will fucking do it. Do you want to know why? Because we don’t put it all on a pile and light it on fire. We give it to people.” That money was going to be spent somewhere, Cameron said: “If the studio agrees and thinks it’s a good investment, as opposed to buying an oil lease off of the north of Scotland, which somebody would think was a good investment, why not do it?” To date, all of his films have made their money back, many of them spectacularly.

The reported $350M-$400M budget firmly places the film as the most expensive film ever made.

As far as that $2B+ break-even point speculated by film industry insiders, I've already contributed my part — purchasing a $20 ticket for Thursday night.

Oh yeah, this is the first of four planned sequels.