- Unwinding the Thread
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- People Suck at Predicting the Future
If you think you know where tech is headed in the coming years, do yourself a service and keep it to yourself. You're almost guaranteed to be comically incorrect.
Humans are extraordinarily awful at predicting the outcome of any exponential growth. This deficiency is met with the ultimate amplifier in the world of computing, where Moore's Law famously describes the phenomenon of computing power doubling every two years while simultaneously halving in cost.
This hasn't stopped some of the most outspoken technologists, economists, and visionaries of our time from believing they know best.
My personal favorite, and probably the most outlandishly embarrassing example, was Paul Krugman's 1998 prediction that the internet would prove to have no greater impact than the fax machine by 2005.
Krugman later reflected on the quote and declared: "the point was to be fun and provocative"
It certainly was.
Another take on the imminent irrelevancy of the internet came courtesy of the Daily Mail in 2000.
In 2004, Bill Gates promised an end to Spam by 2006. The clock's still ticking.
Some of the most popular cold takes came in the wake of the iPhone. Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer proclaimed: “There is no chance of the iPhone ever gaining significant market share.”
The New York Times' tech columnist had this to say in 2006: "Everyone's always asking me when Apple will come out with a cell phone. My answer is, 'Probably never.'"
Interestingly, some of the very innovators who are remembered for bringing about massive technological shifts were once voicing their incredulity at that same idea.
Take YouTube founder Steve Chen, who was evidently feeling pretty doubtful on the future of YouTube back in 2005:
“I don’t know… there just aren’t that many videos I want to watch.”
Even Steve Jobs almost missed the boat entirely on subscriptions in 2003:
“Subscription models for music are bankrupt. I think you could make the Second Coming of Jesus himself available on subscription and it wouldn’t be successful."
But we can go back even further for similarly dismal predictions on the future of tech.
“This ‘telephone’ has far too many shortcomings to be taken seriously as a means of communication. It has objectively no value.”
“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad.”
"Before man reaches the moon, your mail will be delivered within hours from New York to Australia by guided missiles. We stand on the threshold of rocket mail."
I'll leave you with this gem.